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Quantifying the future clinical burden of an ageing HIV-positive population in Italy: a mathematical modelling study
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"The model projects that the mean age amongst patients on ART will increase from 46.1 to 58.8 in Italy between 2015 and 2035. .......The proportion of patients on ART aged ≥ 50 years old will increase from 30% to 76% between 2015 and 2035............The proportion of patients on ART with no NCDs will decrease from 36% to 11% between 2015 and 2035 in Italy......The proportion of patients on ART with three or more NCDs will increase from 10% to 46% between 2015 and 2035.......To ensure the best overall long-term health, optimal selection of ART and co-medication choice is maintained for these populations, multi-disciplinary patient management and enhanced communication between HIV specialists, geriatric medicine and primary care must be developed."
Reported by Jules Levin
HIV Glasgow 2016 Oct 23-26
Mikaela Smit1, Rachel Cassidy1, Alessandro Cozzi-Lepri2, Enrico Girardi3, Alessia Mammone3, Andrea Antinori3, Gioacchino Angarano4, Francesca Bai5, Stefano Rusconi6, Giacomo Magnani7, Antonella d'Arminio Monforte5, Timothy B Hallet1.
Affiliations: 1 Imperial College, London, UK. 2. University College London, UK. 3. INMI L Spallanzani, Roma, Italy. 4. Also Moro University of Bari, Bari, Italy. 5. S. Paolo Hospital University of Milano, Milano, Italy. 6. Sacco Hospital, Milano, Italy. 7. Arcispedale S. Maria Nuova, Reggio Emilia, Italy. Correspondence to Dr Mikaela Smit, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine at St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, W2 1PG. UK. E-mail: mikaela.smit@imperial.ac.uk Tel. 0044 20 7584 3290.
References:
1. Althoff KN, Smit M, Reiss P, Justice AC. HIV and ageing. Curr Opin HIV AIDS [Internet]. 2016 Sep;11(5):527-36. Available from: http://content.wkhealth.com/linkback/openurl?sid=WKPTLP:landingpage&an=01222929-201609000-00012
2. Smit M, Brinkman K, Geerlings S, Smit C, Thyagarajan K, Sighem A van, et al. Future challenges for clinical care of an ageing population infected with HIV: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis [Internet]. 2015 Jul;15(7):810-8.
3. UNAIDS. Number of people living with HIV [Internet]. 2015 [cited 2016 Jul 17]. Available from: http://aidsinfo.unaids.org/
BOARD OF DIRECTORS A d'Arminio Monforte (Vice-President), M Andreoni, G Angarano, A Antinori, F Castelli, R Cauda, G Di Perri, M Galli, R Iardino, G Ippolito, A Lazzarin, CF Perno, F von Schloesser, P Viale. SCIENTIFIC SECRETARY A d'Arminio Monforte, A Antinori, A Castagna, F Ceccherini-Silberstein, A Cozzi-Lepri, E Girardi, S Lo Caputo, C Mussini, M Puoti. STEERING COMMITTEE M Andreoni, A Ammassari, A Antinori, C Balotta, A Bandera, P Bonfanti, S Bonora, M Borderi, A Calcagno, L Calza, MR Capobianchi, A Castagna, F Ceccherini-Silberstein, A Cingolani, P Cinque, A Cozzi-Lepri, A d'Arminio Monforte, A De Luca, A Di Biagio, E Girardi, N Gianotti, A Gori, G Guaraldi, G Lapadula, M Lichtner, S Lo Caputo, G Madeddu, F Maggiolo, G Marchetti, S Marcotullio, L Monno, C Mussini, S Nozza, M Puoti, E Quiros Roldan, R Rossotti, S Rusconi, MM Santoro, A Saracino, M Zaccarelli. STATISTICAL AND MONITORING TEAM A Cozzi-Lepri, I Fanti, L Galli, P Lorenzini, A Rodano, M Shanyinde, A Tavelli. BIOLOGICAL BANK INMI F Carletti, S Carrara, A Di Caro, S Graziano, F Petrone, G Prota, S Quartu, S Truffa. PARTICIPATING PHYSICIANS AND CENTERS A Giacometti, A Costantini, C Valeriani (Ancona); G Angarano, L Monno, C Santoro (Bari); F Maggiolo, C Suardi (Bergamo); P Viale, V Donati, G Verucchi (Bologna); F Castelli, E Quiros Roldan, C Minardi (Brescia); T Quirino, C Abeli (Busto Arsizio); PE Manconi, P Piano (Cagliari); B Cacopardo, B Celesia (Catania); J Vecchiet, K Falasca (Chieti); L Sighinolfi, D Segala (Ferrara); F Mazzotta, F Vichi (Firenze); G Cassola, C Viscoli, A Alessandrini, N Bobbio, G Mazzarello (Genova); C Mastroianni, V Belvisi (Latina); P Bonfanti, I Caramma (Lecco); A Chiodera, P Milini (Macerata); M Galli, A Lazzarin, G Rizzardini, M Puoti, A d'Arminio Monforte, AL Ridolfo, R Piolini, A Castagna, S Salpietro, L Carenzi, MC Moioli, C Tincati, G Marchetti (Milano); C Mussini, C Puzzolante (Modena); A Gori, G Lapadula (Monza); N Abrescia, A Chirianni, G Borgia, R Orlando, F Di Martino, L Maddaloni, I Gentile, G Bonadies (Napoli); A Cascio, C Colomba (Palermo); F Baldelli, E Schiaroli (Perugia); G Parruti, T Ursini (Pescara); G Magnani, MA Ursitti (Reggio Emilia); R Cauda, M Andreoni, A Antinori, V Vullo, A Cristaudo, A Cingolani, G Baldin, S Cicalini, L Gallo, E Nicastri, R Acinapura, M Capozzi, R Libertone, S Savinelli, A Latini, G Iaiani, L Fontanelli Sulekova (Roma); M Cecchetto, F Viviani (Rovigo); MS Mura, G Madeddu (Sassari); A De Luca, B Rossetti (Siena); D Francisci, C Di Giuli (Terni); P Caramello, G Di Perri, GC Orofino, S Bonora, M Sciandra (Torino); M Bassetti, A Londero (Udine); G Pellizzer, V Manfrin (Vicenza).
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